SanDisk, Soaring High on AI Boom... Wall Street "Up to $1,250
2026-04-21
The stock price of SanDisk, a leading U.S. NAND flash memory company, continues its steep upward trajectory. Over the past six months, the stock has soared more than 500%, capturing intense market interest. However, on the 20th (local time), the day it was first included in the Nasdaq 100 index, it instead fell nearly 1%. While inclusion in this index is generally read as a bullish signal, this unusual weak trend has instead focused analysts' attention on the potential for further gains.
Underlying this sharp stock movement is a paradigm shift in the technology industry. As major global tech companies have recently significantly enhanced user-customized intelligent system functions, the industry's focus is rapidly moving from the basic learning phase to the practical application and decision-making phase. In this transition, securing massive data storage space and ultra-high-speed computational processing capabilities have emerged as the most urgent challenges. NAND flash memory, which can retain information even when power is cut off and offers large-capacity storage, has gained spotlight as a key solution, leading to an explosive increase in demand.
Consequently, expectations for SanDisk's performance are also skyrocketing. The company is scheduled to announce its Q3 (Jan-Mar) results for the 2026 fiscal year on the 30th. In the previous Oct-Dec quarter, revenue surged 61% year-over-year to $3.025 billion, and operating profit jumped approximately fourfold to $1.133 billion, showing strong performance. This is a remarkable turnaround compared to the operating profit of just $2 million in the same Jan-Mar quarter last year. While the market expects this quarter's revenue to be around $2.93 billion, CEO David Geckler has presented a much more optimistic forecast of $4.4 to $4.8 billion. In a recent meeting, he explained, "We have significantly raised our NAND market growth forecast for data centers from just 20-40% to 60% in a matter of months," adding, "The demand growth trend is difficult to gauge."
Major Wall Street brokerages are also successively raising their price targets significantly. Bernstein raised its target from $1,000 to $1,250, with analyst Mark Newman forecasting "exceptional performance will continue through 2028." Citigroup raised its target from $875 to $980, and Jefferies increased from $700 to $1,000. JPMorgan Chase stated in its own report, "A strong price upcycle is expected over the next 2-3 years," analyzing that "a rare, long-term boom period is arriving." According to market research firms, the average price of key NAND flash products jumped nearly 40% in March alone and has increased eightfold compared to January last year, with demand overwhelmingly outpacing supply.
However, even amid this high-flying performance, questions are being raised about whether the company can build a stable, mid-to-long-term profit structure. Some foreign media point out that SanDisk faces the challenge of expanding sales in growth areas like data centers while also solidifying a robust profit foundation. While some view the stock's weakness on its first day of Nasdaq 100 inclusion as a technical correction after a sharp rise, it is serving as an opportunity to assess future upside potential. Amidst the great transformation of the technology industry, the market is watching closely whether SanDisk's whirlwind is a temporary phenomenon or the prelude to a new era of growth.